Poker Hand Breakdown: Nik Airball Goes All-in For 5x The Pot Size

In this Hustler Casino Live stream, we have Nik Airball firing from all the cylinders, going all-in in a spot where he has a nutted hand that needs protection from the draws. The question is if the five times the pot sizing was correct, let's breakdown a hand and see where the options were and which one is the best.

Airball vs Senor Tilt Full Hand Breakdown

The game was $100/$200 No Limit Hold'em 7-max, and the hand was played 881 BBs effective.

The hand started with a CO open from Senor Tilts with As4s, and action folded to Airball in LJ, who called the 10 bb open from Senor Tilts holding Ac3c. The pot was 24.5 BBs. 

I find 10 bb open very weird, even for 881 bb effective play. It would get really uncomfortable to play against any 3-bets, as you would be playing from behind almost every time. The logic is that As4s hand has a lot of potential to draw to the nuts, which is highly valued when playing deep, but still, I think it's a mistake.

The flop came Jc2s5s, giving the advantage to Senor Tilt, who had a nut flush draw + gutshot and an overcard against Airball, who only had a gutshot and an overcard. There was 64% to 36% equity advantage for Senor Tilt, who fired a bet of 15 bbs, and Airball just called. The pot was 54.5 BBs.

Here, I like the bet and the sizing from Senor Tilt, who wants to build the pot as he has a good chance and great implied odds to turn the nuts with a bloated pot playing this deep. However, the call from Airball is questionable as reversed implied odds are bad for him if he hits the gutshot, but it's a 4s, and his hand doesn't have playability or equity realization potential on almost any runouts.

The turn came 4d, which is one of the two best cards in the deck for Airball. Airball checks, and Senor Tilt goes for a 2.5x pot overbet (125bb bet). Airball thinks for a few moments and goes all-in for 856 BBs, effective!

Senor Tilt is left with the big decision of calling for an additional 731 BBs with just 22% equity. After a 6-minute tank, Senor Tilt makes the call and is disguised when Airball turns his hand up.

Let's start with 2.5x pot overbet from Senor Tilt. When we think about it, what is the purpose of that bet? The purpose should be to fold out stronger hands; Airball could have, but there are not many hands that Airball would fold. He is going to fold 5x, but he would fold it to a smaller sizing decent amount of time. But it looks like the main goal is to fold out Jx hands, which is questionable if Airball ever folds those, and he surely isn't going to fold overpairs or flush draws if we already saw he is calling flop with gutshot and only two clean runouts.

But this also folds a bunch of light floats Airball has in his range, making his range super nutted when he continues. So I would prefer to see a check here as Senor Tilt has some showdown value and isn't risking getting shoved on or raised big with the hand that can still draw to nuts.

Then, the worst possible scenario happens for Senor Tilt, and Airball shoves for an additional 731 BBs, which is weird, as you want calls from weaker hands, and you are going to scare off sets and overpairs as you are almost never bluffing jamming 731 BBs over 125 BB 2.5x pot overbet. So it looks like Airball just wanted to put his money in good and was scared about possible runouts on the river being this deep.

I would Prefer more attractive sizing to lure in the caller, leaving some chips behind, as they are going to go in on the river anyway, regardless of the runnout. If the caller hits, you are not folding. If they have a set, they are not folding. If they have two pairs, they are not folding if the 1000 BBs are already inside, they have 200 more behind, and both flushes have bricked.

But in most scenarios, you are going to fold out flush draws, with an 855 BB shove over their OB. You want to lure in this hands, calling 350-500bb with 20% equity. You will fold out sets that have less than 20% equity, and you will fold out overpairs that have 5% equity.

The call from Senor Tilt was such a huge blunder. He is already blocking nut flush draws that he is hoping Airball has, as that is the only thing he is ahead of. Calling for an additional 731 BBs while "knowing" you are almost never ahead is complete madness, and he gets punished for that. 

The first river came 9d, and the second river was 5h, leaving Airball with a full pot of 1766 BBs and a total of $353,300.